Last week I was talking to a member of my team explaining that we cover the fifty most important companies in technology. He said: “how would I know that?”

Oh. Branding. Right.

So from now on, you’ll hear that a lot about Epistrophy Capital Research: “Covering the fifty most important companies in technology.” Because that’s what we do.

Last week we saw earnings from fifteen of our companies. Written reports are available for paying clients, of course, and Drill Down Earnings video podcasts are for all to cherish.

As always, we’re focused on three things:
1) Technology-driven change;
2) the latest in innovation and startup trends, and;
3) stock fraud.

Companies Discussed

In This Note:

• Companies Discussed

• TikTok: Trump Timeline & Buyout Probability Scores

  • Trump Timeline

  • TikTok Buyout Probability Score:

• Spire's Ship Be Sinkin’*

• Tweet O’ The Week

• Epistrophy In The News

• 📆 of Epistrophy Events

• Availability This Week

TikTok: Trump Timeline & Buyout Probability Scores

President Donald Trump’s direct involvement in brokering TikTok's sale has reshaped the landscape of what may become technology's defining deal of 2024. His evolving stance, from advocate of prohibition to speaking of his "warm spot" for the platform, culminated in TikTok CEO Shou Chew's appearance at his inauguration. I published an analysis of potential bidders in January (TikTok On The Block And On The Clock, Jan. 13, 2025) as a Supreme Court deadline loomed. 

Here, a month later, the situation has changed. 

Trump Timeline

President Trump has inserted himself into the dealmaking. Among the developments: 

• Jan. 20: Trump executive order signed, saying: “the Attorney General not to take any action to enforce the [TikTok ban] for a period of 75 days from today to allow my Administration an opportunity to determine the appropriate course forward in an orderly way that protects national security while avoiding an abrupt shutdown of a communications platform used by millions of Americans.”

• Jan 21: Following a Bloomberg report, Trump said he’s open to X (nee Twitter) CEO Elon Musk buying TikTok or Oracle (ORCL: NYSE) Executive Chairman Larry Ellison. “I’d like Larry to buy it too.” 
  “I have the right to make a deal,” said Trump. “What I am thinking about saying to somebody is ‘buy it and give half to the United States of America.’” (full disclosure: I am long ORCL).

• Jan. 25: Reuters reported that Oracle was looking to takeover the app’s US operations

• Jan. 25: On a flight to his Palm Beach resort, he told reporters on Air Force One: "I have spoken to many people about TikTok and there is great interest in TikTok.”  

• Jan. 27: Trump says Microsoft is in talks to buy TikTok

• Feb. 7, NBC reported that Trump tapped Vice President J.D. Vance to broker a TikTok sale.

• Feb. 13, Trump said in a press conference: “I’m going to make it worthwhile for China to do it.” 

The new deadline is April 5. 

The app store saga reads like digital drama. TikTok's January 18 14-hour timeout sparked a brief exodus of users to Instagram and Snap, dubbing themselves “TikTok refugees.” The story took an unexpected turn this weekend, with TikTok's return to Apple and Google's app stores over the weekend, marking a strategic boost in the platform’s tumultuous American journey. 

My journey on the platform began as an experiment in meeting audiences where they gather, rather than where tradition suggests they should be. The metrics speak volumes – my TikToks consistently outperform identical content on YouTube Shorts and Instagram, though perhaps that’s just Beijing's algorithmic army taking notes on my Palantir (PLTR: NYSE) analyses.

This digital colossus stands too tall to vanish into the ether. While initial valuations approached $77 billion, each passing day dims ByteDance's leverage as the specter of losing everything looms larger. TikTok's U.S. revenues were reportedly $7.74 billion in 2024, with 25% annual growth. At 10x revenue, the price tag starts making sense.

But to whom?

TikTok Buyout Probability Score:

1. Microsoft (MSFT: NASDAQ)
   The Smartest Buyer with the Least Incentive
   5/10
   Microsoft was a frontrunner in 2020 when the Trump administration first pushed for a TikTok sale, and for good reason. With a $3 trillion market cap, over $100 billion in cash reserves, and a reputation for regulatory compliance, Microsoft would face fewer antitrust hurdles than its Big Tech peers. TikTok’s data-driven ad platform could supercharge Microsoft’s underwhelming ad business (which generated $18.5 billion in 2023, compared to Google’s $300 billion). More importantly, TikTok’s AI-powered recommendation engine aligns with Microsoft’s deep investments in AI, particularly its OpenAI partnership. Yet Microsoft’s business model is fundamentally different: its success lies in enterprise software, cloud computing, and AI infrastructure, not social media. With LinkedIn as its only consumer-facing platform and no clear plan for TikTok’s monetization, the question remains—does Satya Nadella really want to integrate a volatile, consumer-driven, creator-dependent platform into Microsoft’s portfolio? A deal would be feasible, but the strategic fit is questionable.

2. Oracle
   A Data Goldmine, But Can It Afford It?
   4.5/10
   The database giant returns to the fray after its 2020 "trusted technology provider" bid fizzled. Oracle was previously positioned as TikTok’s "trusted technology provider" in 2020, a compromise that allowed TikTok’s U.S. data to be stored on Oracle Cloud. But Oracle’s renewed interest in an outright acquisition presents major financial and strategic hurdles. While TikTok’s vast troves of user data align with Oracle’s enterprise expertise, financing a $70+ billion acquisition is another story. Oracle has a market cap of $300 billion, but its recent $28 billion acquisition of healthcare data company Cerner already strained its balance sheet, and its track record with large-scale consumer acquisitions is mixed at best. Shareholders may balk at the idea of Oracle diving into the unpredictable world of social media, and regulatory scrutiny over foreign data security concerns could complicate matters further. A more likely scenario? Oracle deepens its role as TikTok’s cloud infrastructure provider rather than taking on the full financial and operational risk of ownership.

3. Walmart (WMT: NYSE)
   Retail Giant Eyes Social Commerce
   4.5/10
   Walmart’s interest in TikTok is rooted in its desire to expand its digital commerce strategy. With more than 1.2 billion active users, TikTok presents a valuable platform for Walmart to drive its social commerce initiatives, particularly with TikTok’s shoppable livestreams and growing brand partnerships. Walmart’s market cap of roughly $450 billion and its strategic focus on e-commerce could make it an ideal buyer to capitalize on TikTok’s global reach and social commerce model. However, despite Walmart’s financial strength, its cash reserves of about $11 billion would not be enough to fund an acquisition of TikTok without external support. The retailer, known for its conservative approach to expansion, would likely need to partner with sovereign wealth funds or private equity firms to cover the high price tag. Additionally, Walmart lacks experience in managing social media platforms, which could pose challenges in adapting TikTok’s unique user engagement-driven model to its retail-centric business.

4. Project Liberty
   A $20 Billion Vision with a Missing Piece
   3/10
   Frank McCourt’s Project Liberty is less of a corporate acquisition and more of an ideological mission. The billionaire real estate mogul has pledged $500 million of his own money toward decentralizing the internet, with backing from a consortium of family offices and high-net-worth individuals committing $20 billion. His goal? Migrate TikTok away from ByteDance’s proprietary systems and onto a blockchain-based infrastructure, giving users more control over their data. But here’s the problem: ByteDance has made it clear that the “For You” algorithm—the lifeblood of TikTok’s engagement engine—will not be part of any sale. Without it, replicating TikTok’s astounding 95-minute average daily user engagement (compared to Instagram’s 50 minutes and YouTube’s 45) becomes a near-impossible challenge. Project Liberty’s decentralized web vision may be forward-thinking, but the immediate question is whether it can maintain TikTok’s addictiveness without the very software that makes it work.

5. Farvahar Partners / 1789 Capital
   Political Access, But Limited Capital
   3.5/10
   Farvahar Partners and 1789 Capital, led by Omeed Malik (with one Donald Trump Jr. as a new venture partners at the venture capital arm 1789), could emerge as deal architects rather than full-fledged acquirers of TikTok. These boutique firms, despite their limited capital, hold strong political connections that could prove useful in navigating regulatory concerns around a TikTok acquisition. With ties to conservative investors and presidential access, they could broker deals or structure transactions that align with the U.S. government’s interest in securing TikTok’s U.S. operations. While their focus on private market opportunities (such as SpaceX and X.ai) demonstrates financial acumen, the lack of sufficient funds means they won’t buy TikTok outright. They have a 10% chance of being involved in the deal, which they could facilitate a deal through private investors or partnerships, possibly bringing in sovereign wealth funds to back the acquisition.

6. SoftBank
   High Stakes, High Risk
   3/10
   SoftBank’s previous investments in ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, make it a potential player in the acquisition of TikTok’s U.S. operations. SoftBank does not currently have the financial resources to back a deal, but it’s shown a remarkable ability to drum up co-investors despite a long run of disastrous deals (the WeWork debacle among them.) Softbank’s involvement with both Chinese and Japanese interests could also complicate the regulatory approval process in the U.S., especially given the heightened scrutiny of TikTok due to its ties to China. While SoftBank’s deep pockets and global investment network provide it with an opportunity, its mixed history with large-scale acquisitions and the geopolitical sensitivity of a TikTok deal make this acquisition a long shot.

7. X (Formerly Twitter)
   Lightning Strikes Once
   2/10
   Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter has been marked by financial struggles, with Twitter reportedly losing $4 million per day under his stewardship. Musk’s track record with Twitter suggests that he may not have the financial stability or operational expertise to pursue an acquisition of TikTok, particularly given the enormous price tag of $70+ billion. The antitrust concerns surrounding a merger between two major social media platforms would also be significant, likely preventing any potential deal. Musk’s involvement in both Twitter and TikTok could attract scrutiny from regulators who are already concerned about the concentration of power in the hands of a few tech giants. With Twitter in a state of flux, and Musk's acquisition strategy increasingly under fire, the chances of him acquiring TikTok are long.

8. Meta (META: NASDAQ)
   The Regulatory Roadblock
   1.5/10
   Meta (nee Facebook) is arguably the most obvious fit for TikTok in terms of content, ad revenue models, and social media strategy. However, any potential merger would face insurmountable regulatory challenges. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has already scrutinized Meta’s acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp, and combining Meta with TikTok would draw intense antitrust scrutiny, likely killing the deal. Despite Meta’s vast resources and strategic interest in acquiring TikTok to enhance its dominance in the social media landscape, the regulatory barriers make this acquisition a near impossibility. Meta would also struggle to integrate TikTok’s data-driven, creator-dependent platform into its existing ecosystem, which focuses heavily on paid advertising and consumer data analytics. Despite its strategic fit, Meta’s regulatory challenges make this acquisition highly improbable.

9. Perplexity
   Ambitious, But Improbable
   1/10
   The search engine startup Perplexity AI has revised a merger proposal it had submitted to TikTok's Chinese parent ByteDance to create a new entity combining Perplexity and TikTok U.S., a person familiar with the proposal told Reuters on January 26. But the sheer complexity of merging a startup like Perplexity with a giant like TikTok raises questions about whether the company could handle the operational, financial, and regulatory challenges of such an undertaking. This proposal is more of a pipe dream than a realistic acquisition path.The proposal calls for the U.S. government to own up to 50% of the new company upon a future $300 billion (!) initial public offering (IPO), an arrangement sure to find favor with President Trump, a fan of imaginary numbers. 

10. Jimmy “MrBeast” Donaldson
    Viral Genius, But Not a Billionaire
    0/10
    YouTube sensation MrBeast has shown a keen interest in TikTok’s potential, particularly as a platform for viral content. MrBeast, with his massive following and ability to generate eye-popping engagement numbers, is an obvious candidate to capitalize on TikTok’s user base. However, there’s one major hurdle: financial capacity. While Donaldson is a rising star in the world of influencer-driven media, his personal wealth—estimated to be around $100 million—is far from enough to bankroll the multi-billion dollar acquisition of TikTok’s U.S. operations. MrBeast’s influence and deep ties to the digital world could be invaluable in shaping TikTok’s future direction, but his lack of financial resources means that any acquisition would require backing from institutional investors or partners with deeper pockets. He’s the king of social media, but his ability to finance and lead such a complex deal is zilch.

11. Ohh, and Kevin “Mr. Wonderful” O’Leary
    Reality TV, Not Reality
    0.5/10
    O’Leary claims a $20-30 billion war chest for TikTok's U.S. operations, which seems clownish for a reason. And his past associations with sketchy ventures might not survive the scrutiny of a TikTok deal. Kevin O’Leary, as co-founder and CEO of SoftKey Software Products (later The Learning Company), orchestrated an aggressive acquisition strategy that masked the company’s financial instability. Under his leadership, SoftKey bought out dozens of educational software competitors, often using inflated stock valuations while failing to generate sustainable profits, a tactic that led Toy Wars author G. Wayne Miller to describe the business as “a house of cards, propped up by deals rather than real growth.” O’Leary exited The Learning Company shortly after persuading Mattel to buy it for $3.6 billion in 1999, a deal that quickly unraveled, leading to a $105 million quarterly loss, a stock collapse, and the ousting of Mattel’s CEO. And his paid FTX endorsement preceded crypto catastrophe. This is not to be taken seriously. Then again, there’s a reality TV star in the Oval Office orchestrating this deal – so yeah I’m saying there’s a chance. 

Spire's Ship Be Sinkin’*

Space is infinite. The boundaries of a deal memo? Not so much. 

Spire Global (SPIR: NYSE), the satellite data provider we’ve discussed here in the past, saw its share price cut in half last week, after revealing that the planned $234 million sale of its maritime business was in trouble. Belgian firm Kpler, touted as a savior for Spire in a November 13, 2024 press release, has refused to complete the acquisition and now Spire is suing its erstwhile suitor. 

The outcome has derailed a critical debt restructuring – and threaten’s the company's survival.

Court documents reveal a severe liquidity crisis: Spire held just $19.2 million in cash at year-end 2024, with a mere $4.8 million available in the United States. The remaining $14.4 million sits trapped overseas, unavailable for U.S. operations or satellite launches. This week, that precarious position forced Spire to admit "substantial doubt" about its ability to continue as a going concern.

The cash constraints create an existential threat to Spire's business model. Each small satellite payload typically costs $300,000 to $500,000 to manufacture and an additional $300,000 to launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. With multiple satellites requiring replacement due to premature deorbiting, Spire needs tens of millions in fresh capital just to maintain its existing constellation – money it doesn't have.

Maritime Misfire

Spire filed suit in Delaware Chancery Court on February 10, seeking to compel Kpler to complete its purchase of the maritime business. The deal was announced as a life saver for Spire, an escape route – providing cash to repay $115.5 million in high-interest debt owed to Blue Torch Capital.

Kpler's refusal to close, despite Spire's insistence that all conditions have been met, leaves the company exposed to Blue Torch, whose forbearance agreement expired in December. The lender can now demand immediate repayment of the entire loan balance – far exceeding Spire's reserves.

"The company will not have sufficient cash to repay the balance of the loans outstanding under the Financing Agreement in the event Blue Torch declares all or any portion of the loans to be due and payable," Spire disclosed in SEC filings.

What happened? In its suit, Spire claims Kpler failed to uphold key terms of the transaction, which involved the sale of Spire’s maritime business for approximately $241 million. In response, Kpler has removed the case from the Delaware Court of Chancery to the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware, citing diversity jurisdiction and an amount in controversy exceeding $75,000. 

Spire could offer clarity. But instead Spire, which has not been able to file financial statements since Q1 2024, asked the court to seal the records of the suit. Spire insisted that confidential and commercially sensitive details about the Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) should be private, including financial terms, personnel matters, and post-closing conditions.

Nonetheless, the judge insisted that the redacted complaint be released, which it was on Friday, Feb. 14 after the close of business on a three-day weekend. A look at the heavily-redacted complaint hints at problems with a Kpler supplier, perhaps a conflict borne of the Spire maritime deal. From the complaint (bold emphasis added). 

So what is the Supplier agreement? We don’t yet know, but there are tantalizing clues: 

20. [redacted] (10/22/2024 Offer Letter). Kpler has not entered into a final agreement on renegotiated terms, and has pointed to the lack of a finally executed agreement as a reason to delay the closing. The fact that Kpler has not signed an agreement with Supplier in no way prevents Kpler from honoring its obligations under the SPA Kpler did not make a successful renegotiation of the Supplier Agreement a condition to closing. And, in any event, Spire understands that Kpler and Supplier have since concluded renegotiations and Supplier is ready to sign an acceptable revised agreement. Thus, there is no impediment to closing.

There is also an objection by a government entity to this sale of one of the largest American-owned satellite businesses? We don’t yet know, but there are tantalizing clues: 

Is there a new objection from the government? Perhaps by the new Trump administration? It’s worth noting that in 2020, In-Q-Tel invested $1.35 million in Spire Global to support the development of its satellite technology, underscoring the strategic importance of Spire's data services to U.S. intelligence operations. Could the maritime sale to a Belgian firm be objectionable to the Trump White house,  potentially due to the sensitive nature of the data involved and its significance to national security The government's objection may stem from fears that transferring this segment to a foreign entity could compromise state secrets or critical intelligence capabilities.

Spire, desperate to get Kpler’s cash, has asked for an expedited trial. We’re breaking out the 🍿

Technical Turbulence

Time does not stand still while the court machinations grind on. Spires satellites are falling from the sky. Physics is real. Heightened solar activity accelerates the deorbiting of the company's low-earth satellites, demanding costly replacements as cash dwindles.

SEC filings reveal mounting "loss on decommissioned satellite" expenses, pointing to systemic issues with Spire's fleet of small "nanosatellites." Though all low-earth orbit operators face similar solar challenges, Spire's reliance on cheaper satellites at lower altitudes amplifies its vulnerability.

“Some of the older satellites basically will deorbit a little bit earlier than we had anticipated," founder and Chairman Peter Platzer acknowledged on a recent conference call, forcing the company to "reset the useful lives for some of the satellites.”

The useful life of the SPIR listing may also have expired. In that Feb. 11 filing (which is not available in on Spire’s list of SEC filings on its website) the company warned in that would not meet a February 19, 2025 deadline imposed by the NYSE to file accurate financials from 2024, saying: “there can be no assurance that the Company will be able to file its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2024 by the NYSE deadline or that the NYSE will be willing to provide the requested extension of its deadline.” Delisting could be imminent though we’ve found the exchange to be remarkably pliant to companies in the past. 

Family Office or Public Company?

Amid technical failures, Spire's governance raises eyebrows. In December 2024, with the company already distressed, the board approved €475,000 for Platzer and $195,000 for his outgoing CFO Leo Basola as special bonuses for their work on the uncompleted maritime sale.

The husband-wife leadership team (Platzer and his wife, newly-named CEO Theresa Condor) maintain control through super-voting shares while wrestling with their second financial restatement in two years. The latest accounting issues have left Spire unable to file current financial statements since June 2024, imperiling its NYSE listing.

Customer Exodus

The deterioration extends beyond finances. Spire's “ARR Solution Customers” have fallen from 813 in Q2 2023 to 708 in recent quarters. Net revenue retention dropped below 100% – on Earth, that translates to customers reducing their spending. And that’s before competitor SpaceX’s CEO Elon Musk was rampaging through government offices looking for “unnecessary spending.”

The planned maritime division sale would concentrate Spire's remaining revenue among government contracts. Three federal customers already generate 27% of total revenue, leaving the company at the mercy of bureaucratic budgets.

Orbital Mechanics

Without the maritime sale proceeds, Spire faces limited options. The company seeks additional financing through a stock sale or additional debt, though its ongoing financial restatement complicates fundraising. Management might “delay, limit, reduce, or terminate certain commercial efforts” – moves that could accelerate customer departures.

For a company that promised to democratize space, Spire now finds that in low earth orbit, gravity always wins. The coming weeks will determine whether this neato technology can overcome fundamental business gravity.

• “The Ship Be Sinkin’” New York Knicks point guard Michael Ray Richardson, 1981

Tweet O’ The Week

Epistrophy In The News

The United States is deep in a profound debate over the purpose of government and appropriate allocation of government spending. And of course, technology CEO Elon Musk is at the center of that conversation. Advocates of smaller government argue that reducing expenditures fosters innovation and economic growth by limiting bureaucracy. Conversely, proponents of a strong regulatory state contend that essential services such as transportation, public safety and infrastructure require sustained investment to ensure national stability and security.

This philosophical divide is now playing out in the aviation sector, where recent moves by President Trump and his newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Musk, have drawn scrutiny over their potential impact on airline safety in the aftermath of the tragic midair collision near Washington, D.C., on January 29, 2025, which claimed 70 lives—the deadliest U.S. aviation disaster since 2009 — and an terrifying crash in Canada on President’s Day.

We talked about all that on NewsNation with Connell McBride — a different kind of hit for me and an interesting one.

📆 of Epistrophy Events

Availability This Week

I’m available all week so email or even text if you don’t hear back right away. I’d love to expand on the thoughts I’ve shared and I’ll be right on top of all the earnings reports outlined above.  Written reports are available to clients, with video summaries on YouTube and, of course our popular summaries of the summaries (yes, the second derivative) on Instagram and Tiktok.

I’m planning a trip back to New York the week of March 17. Let’s get some face time (and you can remind why I should stop calling San Francisco “cold.”)

I hope these notes are helpful to you. I’d love to discuss them further and, as always, comments, questions and ideas are appreciated. If you have a friend or even a frenemy whom you think might benefit from this note, have them reach out and I’ll put them on the list.